A few days ago, Trump told CBS News that China would not be allowed to have the most advanced chips produced by Nvidia, but otherwise it would be able to deal with itself and solve its own affairs. Today, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that claim, proposing how an issue “may arise in the future” when Beijing finally manages to get its hands on Blackwell GPUs.
In an interview with CNBC, Bessent said: “If we think about Blackwell now, it’s the jewel in the crown… Given the incredible innovation that’s happening at Nvidia, where Blackwell chips can be two, three, four smaller in terms of performance and then they can be sold.” This stance fits into the current landscape in the region, where Hopper-based H20 GPUs are still the best Nvidia has to offer – so as Blackwell gets a generation or two older, this could drop off as well.
In his interview, Bessent also emphasized that technological evolution is outpacing the pace of negotiations, which means silicon is what’s driving the conversation. If a deal were struck at this point, it could take longer to agree on terms than to wait for the next-generation product itself, making discussions pointless in the first place.
Blackwell (Ultra) will be officially replaced by Vera Rubin next year, but it will take some time to get ahead, which lines up with Bessent’s comment about “will it be 12 or 24 months” before Blackwell really falls behind. At that point, Nvidia will be able to sell it to China, which, at least for now, wants nothing to do with Nvidia GPUs, with CEO Jensen Huang even claiming that revenue from the region has reached zero.
There is already a ban on receiving high-end Nvidia graphics processors in China, which has led to illegal imports and VRAM modification operations on an unprecedented scale in the region. If any company wants to sell even neutered versions of its flagship products to China, it must pay Washington a 15% cut of sales – which Nvidia would have to do when the China-only B30A discounted GPU (based on Blackwell, which is amusing) finally launches.
Despite the bans, Beijing continues to receive Blackwell chips through gray channels, exporting them from other countries, while China is in the process of transitioning to indigenous silicon in a bid to become independent from artificial intelligence. At their meeting last month, President Trump and President Xi Jinping reached a historic trade truce but omitted any mention of Blackwell, seemingly even in private conversations, further confirming the red tape surrounding semiconductor trade policy.
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